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basic and negative forecasts of MV — Money
Ukraine could face a significant funding shortfall and a drop in GDP if the war continues until 2026.
The International Monetary Fund presented two possible scenarios for the development of Ukraine's economy, which depend on the duration of the war.
This is stated in the published IMF analysis.
Basic scenario predicts that the war will continue until mid-2025. According to this option:
- GDP will grow by 2.5–3.5% in 2025.
- Average inflation will be 10.3% (1.3 percentage points higher than previously expected).
- International reserves will reach 43.3 billion dollars.
The IMF notes that the economic consequences of the winter energy shortage may be less severe thanks to business investment in generation, electricity imports from Europe and infrastructure repairs.
Negative scenario predicts that the war will drag on until mid-2026. This means:
- GDP in 2025…
